“In many systems, the situation is such that under some conditions chaotic events take place. That means that given a particular starting point it is impossible to predict outcomes. This is true even in some quite simple systems, but the more complex a system, the more likely it is to become chaotic. It has always been assumed that anything as complicated as human society would quickly become chaotic and, therefore, unpredictable. What I have done, however, is to show that, in studying human society, it is possible to choose a starting point and to make appropriate assumption that will suppress the chaos, and will make it possible to predict the future, not in full detail, of course, but in broad sweeps; not with certainty, but with calculable probabilities.”
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia
- Complexity Lab in Economics, Department of Economics and Finance, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano.
- CESifo, Munich, Germany.
Associate Editor, International Journal of Microsimulation
- Estimation of Agent-Based Models